中国农业虚拟水国际贸易影响因素研究——基于引力模型的分析

A Study on the Determinants of the Agricultural Virtual Water Trade between China and other Countries

本文基于国际贸易理论和引力模型,构建了中国农业虚拟水国际贸易影响因素的时空引力模型,以中国与40个贸易伙伴国1994～2008年面板数据为样本,进行了实证检验。检验结果表明:与中国农业虚拟水国际贸易正相关的因素为农业劳动力要素禀赋、技术水平、农业规模经济、需求方收入水平、汇率水平及加入WTO等,负相关的因素包括土地和水资源要素禀赋、全国GDP水平、价格水平及区域性经济组织(东盟自由贸易区);农业虚拟水国际贸易的空间效应弱于其时间效应,时间效应明显。文章最后给出了政策启示。

Based on the international trade theory and the gravity model,we have,in this article,constructed a spatiotemporal model of the influencing factors of China's international trade in agricultural virtual water(CITIAVW), and,taking as our specimen the panel data of 1994-2008 on the trade between China and her 40 partners, carried out a test by a case study.The results indicate that the positive factors correlated to CITIAVW are the endowment of the factors of agricultural labor,technology,the agricultural scale economy,the income of demanders, the exchange rate,and the accession to WTO,while the negative ones are the endowment of agricultural land,water,the level of the national GDP,the price level,and the regional economic organization of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations,and that the spatial effect of CITIAVW is less significant and obvious than the time effect thereof.Finally,we have given enlightenment for policymaking.