基于审计证据推理的信息系统运行可靠性预测

Information system reliability prediction based on audit evidence reasoning

为了准确了解信息系统运行可靠程度,并通过事先维护提升系统运行性能,构建了融合信息系统审计和证据推理方法的系统运行可靠性预测模型。通过系统组成要素和运行过程的信息系统审计获得审计证据,在证据推理方法框架下,对这些包含不确定信息的定性和定量证据进行转化与处理,在若干时刻系统可靠性进行评估的基础上,实现对未来某一时刻系统运行可靠程度的预测。最后通过案例详细说明了模型的用法和功能。

In order to accurately understand the reliability of the information system operation and upgrade system performance by premaintenance,the study develops an information system reliability prediction model based on information system audit and evidential reasoning method.According to the evidences obtained from the audit of information system operation components and process,in the framework of evidential reasoning approach,to achieve a system reliability evaluating method on the basic of handling qualitative and quantitative audit evidences which contains uncertain information,and then to forecast the reliability of the system in the future though a series of evaluating value.Finally a case is used to illustrate the proposed approach in detail.