企业生命周期理论与上市公司现金股利分配实证研究

An Empirical Analysis of Life-cycle Theory and Cash Dividend Policy of Listed Companies

文章立足企业生命周期理论,实证检验了上市公司的现金股利分配政策。用留存收益股权比RE/TE作为企业生命周期的代理变量,以沪市A股上市公司为样本,选取2000-2008年间的年度数据,运用Logit模型和Tobit模型分别考察RE/TE和一些控制变量对上市公司是否支付现金股利以及股利发放率的影响。研究发现,我国上市公司是否支付现金股利呈现生命周期特征,而现金股利发放率则不具有生命周期特征;是否发放现金股利具有很强的连贯性,但股利发放率的连贯性不强。建议证监会要求公司结合所处行业和企业生命周期制订中长期的现金股利分配政策,加强对投资者的稳定分红回报。

Based on firm life cycle theory, the paper analyzes empirically cash dividend policy of listed companies. By using the sample of A-share companies listed in SSE from 2000 to 2008 and taking RE/TE as the proxy variable of firm life cycle,it explores the effects of RE/TE and some control variables on the probability of paying cash dividend in listed companies and the dividend payout ratio. It concludes that, in China, the probability of paying cash dividend in listed companies is featured by life cycle, while the cash dividend payout ratio is not. The probability of paying cash dividend is fea tured by a strong continuity,and the dividend payout ratio is not always con sistent. It also advises that listed companies should be required to make middle-term or long-term cash dividend policy with the consideration of life cycle and pay more attention to the stable dividend returns to investors by the securities and futures commission.