人民币成为国际货币的前景

Prospects of RMB to Become an International Currency

在讨论人民币成为国际货币的可能性以及实现的条件等问题上,作者认为,第一,从现阶段人民币在国际和区域范围内的使用程度来看,其不具备国际货币功能。第二,人民币国际化的收益和成本共存,其国际化必将以谨慎的方式推进。第三,资本项目可兑换、国内金融市场发展、汇率制度这三个因素与人民币国际化进程有紧密的关系,但并不是充分必要条件。第四,人民币实现国际化的实现路径可在早期阶段鼓励促进跨境贸易和金融交易人民币计价。在中长期阶段,人民币的区域范围使用应日益覆盖中国的邻国或者更多的区域。

The paper discusses the possibility and conditions for the RMB to become an international currency.The author argues that the RMB is not an international currency at current stage because its international use has many limitations in terms of size and range;benefits and costs coexist for China to have its currency internationalized.Furthermore,capital account convertibility,flexibility of exchange rate and development of domestic financial market are three key elements for the RMB to be used internationally.However,they are not conditions that need to be fully met before the RMB to become an international currency.Finally,the paper proposes a road map for the internationalization of RMB.