FDI、产业结构与国际经济周期协动性研究

International Trade,FDI,Industry Structure and International Business Cycle Co-movements

本文分析国际贸易强度、外商直接投资(FDI)强度和产业结构变化与中国贸易伙伴经济周期协动变化的相关性,探讨在经济全球化条件下经济周期协动性的主要传递因素、传递效应及对中国经济增长的影响。选取1990—2008年中国及其27个主要贸易伙伴的数据,用面板数据模型的普通最小二乘估计法进行实证检验,研究结果表明:中国与发达贸易伙伴之间的经济周期协动性的影响因素中,贸易强度的影响大于投资强度。对中国与发展中贸易伙伴之间的经济周期协动性检验结果是:双边贸易强度、FDI强度、产业结构相似性与GDP周期协动性呈显著正相关关系。本文研究同时表明,虽然目前中国经济增长仍然主要靠国内劳动力和国内投资拉动,但双边贸易强度和FDI强度已经成为国际经济周期协动性的重要影响因素。经济全球化发展中出现国际经济周期趋同性,使国际经济政策协调的研究成为重要的课题。

This thesis examines the impacts of international trade, foreign direct investment and industry structure on business cycle coovements between China and its major trade partners, and investigates the principal transmission factors of business cycle comovements and the contributions of these factors to China＇s economic growth in the context of economic globalization. Through empirical study of 27 trade partners during 1990-2008 using OLS, the results show： bilateral trade intensity has stronger effect than FDI. Bilateral trade intensity, FDI and industry structure similarity are positively correlated with GDP co-movement between China and its developing partners. The thesis also points out that although labor and domestic investment still are the main forces of economic growth in China, bilateral trade intensity and FDI have been significant factors of international business cycle co- movements and China economic growth. International business cycle convergence in economic globalization results in international economic policy coordination to be a crucial issue.