预期、投机与中国城市房价波动

Expectation, Speculation and Urban Housing Price Volatility in China

本文在住房存量调整模型基础上,考察了预期和投机对房价影响。理性预期模型表明,理性预期房价越高,投机越盛,房价波动越大。适应性预期模型表明,当消费性需求占主导时,上期房价越高,房价波动越小;当投机性需求占主导时,上期房价越高,房价波动越大。本文对中国35个大中城市1996—2007年数据的实证结果表明,预期及其投机对中国城市房价波动都具有较强的解释力。研究发现,经济基本面对房价波动影响大于预期和投机,但这并不意味着个别城市房价变动不是由预期和投机决定的;上期房价波动对本期房价波动影响大于下期房价波动,这表明适应性预期作用大于理性预期;利率变动对房价波动影响最大,这表明央行的利率政策加剧了房价波动;收入作用大于开发成本,开发成本并非房价波动的重要因素;人口增长较快的城市,房价波动较大;房价波动并未在地理位置上表现出明显差异。

Based on the housing stock adjustment model, the paper investigates the impact of the expectation and its speculation upon housing prices. The theoretical model illustrates that the higher is the rational expectation housing price, the rampant is the speculation and the greater is the housing price volatility. The increase of the lagged housing price will give rise to the depreciation of current housing price, should the consumption demand dominates the aggregate demand. The increase of the lagged housing price, however, will lead to the escalation of current housing price provided that speculative demand dominates the aggregate demand. Using the data of 35 major cities in China from 1996 through 2007, the paper shows that the expectation and its speculation are testified to have a greater influence on the housing price volatility. The other findings include： the role of the economic fundamentals is more important than that of expectation, but it does not imply that the housing price volatilities in some cities will not derived from the expectation and speculation; the impact of the lagged housing price is greater than that of the forward housing price, which means the role of adaptive expectation is more important than that of rational expectation ; the actual interest rate has the greatest impact on housing price volatility, which indicates that interest policies exacerbate housing price volatility; the role of household income is more significant than that of developing cost; the population growth will facilitate the housing price volatility; the housing price volatility does not vary across cities.