农业经济增长因素分析:物质资本,人力资本,还是对外贸易?

Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Agricultural Economic Growth:Physical Capital,Human Capital,or Foreign Trade?

本文利用包含人力资本的生产函数,对农业经济增长的影响因素进行了实证分析。对1980—2007年时序数据的分析表明,人力资本投资已经成为农户生活支出的重要组成部分;农户始终将教育投资放在首位并越来越重视对迁移的投资,但对健康投资的重视程度较低。从1997—2007年31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据模型的分析中发现,物质资本、土地和化肥投入均是农业增长的重要影响因素;人力资本要素中,教育投资的影响最大,其次是迁移投资,健康投资的作用不明显;对外贸易和财政支持对农业增长的影响不显著;农业和工业比重增加、城市化、政府参与社会经济活动的程度提高和非国有化程度提高均有利于农业的增长。

Using production function incorporating human capital,this paper makes empirical investigation to the factors influencing agricultural economic growth.Analysis based on time series data from year 1980 to 2007 reveals that human capital investment has become an important part in farmers＇ living expenses.Farmers always put education investment as their high priority and value migration investment increasingly.However,they seldom attach importance to health investment.Analysis based on panel data from year 1997 to 2007 covering 31 provinces（cities,municipalities）in China finds that physical capital,land and fertilizer input are the most important factors influencing agricultural growth.As for human capital factors,impact of education investment comes the first,then migration investment the second,yet health investment is statistically insignificant.Foreign trade and financial support to agriculture have no impacts on agricultural growth.Increase of agricultural and industrial share,urbanization,improvement of government＇s participation in social economic activities and denationalization level are all beneficial to agricultural growth.Some implications can be drawn from empirical analysis.