人民币升值真的能够减小美国的失业率么

On the Effects of RMB Appreciation on the US Unemployment

本文运用VECM模型测算得到了人民币升值影响美国失业率的两个相反的效应。协整方程中蕴含了改善美国就业市场的积极作用;但脉冲相应分析揭示了另一相反并且是主导性作用的生成机制:人民币升值会对中国对美国出口产生持续的负面影响,5个月后还会进一步减小中国从美国的进口,而中国对美国进出口的减少均会增加美国失业率。本文的测算结果意味着人民币升值并不是解决美国就业问题的良方。最后,提出了相关政策建议。

This paper employs the VECM model to find two opposing effects of Chinese RMB appreciation on US unemployment. Results from eointegration test show that US unemployment rate is positively correlated with RMB valuation. However, impulse response analysis shows that the opposite transmission mechanism is dominant： RMB appreciation has a long lasting negative impact on Chinese exports to the US and reduces the total trading scale after 5 months. A negative shock in Chinese imports from or exports to the US leads to a rise in US unemployment rate. Our results imply that RMB appreciation is not the recipe for the current US unemployment problem. Finally,Some policy suggestions are provided.