广州市2004-2008年流行性感冒流行特征分析

Epidemiologic characteristics of influenza in Guangzhou City,from 2004 to 2008

目的分析广州市2004-2008年流行性感冒(简称流感)流行特征。方法收集2004-2008年广州市流感监测系统流感样病例(ILI)监测资料,对病毒分离与鉴定结果以及暴发疫情信息进行分析,用季节解构、互相关等方法揭示广州市流感流行特征。结果 2004-2008年广州市流感样病例就诊百分比(ILI%)夏季最高,季节指数为1.637;流行季节与非流行季节ILI%差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);2004、2005、2007年以H3N2型为主要毒株;2006、2008年以H1N1型为主要毒株。暴发疫情的发生强度以小学最大(P<0.05)。对暴发疫情序列分别与ILI%、病毒分离率两条序列进行互相关分析,当lag=-1、-2、-3时,病毒分离率与暴发疫情、ILI%与暴发疫情相关系数均有统计学意义。结论 2004-2008年,广州市流感的流行季节为夏季(5～7月)。H3N2和H1N1交替为流感主要毒株,小学是流感暴发疫情的高发地点。广州市流感监测系统可以客观地反映本市流感的流行特点。

Objective To analyze the epidemiologic characteristics of influenza from 2004 to 2008 in Guangzhou City.Methods Collecting the data of influenza-like illness（ILI） and outbreaks,isolating and identifying the influenza viruses.Analyzing the Guangzhou City influenza epidemiologic characteristics with the methods of seasonal decomposition and correlation test,etc.Results From 2004 to 2008,the ILI% was the highest in summer,the seasonal index was 1.637.The ILI% difference of epidemic season and none-epidemic season had statistical significance（P0.05）.H3N2 dominated in 2004,2005 and 2007,H1N1 dominated in 2006 and 2008.Among units,the primary school had the highest intensity（P0.05）.The correlation analysis for sequences of ILI%,outbreak and virus isolation rate was conducted.If lag=-1,-2,-3,the correlation coefficient of virus isolation rate and epidemic outbreaks,the correlation coefficient of ILI% and outbreaks both had the statistical significance.Conclusions From 2004 to 2008,influenza＇s the most active season in Guangzhou City is summer（May to July）.H3N2 and H1N1 alternately becomes the dominant virus of influenza.The primary school has the largest intensity among the units.Guangzhou City influenza surveillance system can reflect the influenza epidemiologic characteristics of Guangzhou City objectively.