基于HadCM3模式的气候变化下北京地区冬小麦耗水研究

Impact of climate change on water use of winter wheat with HadCM3 Model

气候变化在影响作物生长及农业生产的同时,也对作物耗水过程发生影响,进而影响能量平衡与水分循环、影响作物耗水及灌溉需水量。本文采用IPCC第四次报告中给出的未来气候变化情景中的COMMIT、SRA1B、SRA2和SRB1,选用大气环流模式HadCM3,利用作物模型CERES,模拟不同的灌溉处理下、不同的预测期内北京地区冬小麦的生长和耗水过程,分析气候变化对冬小麦耗水的影响。结果表明,对于未来气候变化情景下的北京地区冬小麦,生长期内的日平均气温明显升高,辐射下降;生长期缩短,生长期长度与气温存在良好的负相关关系;充分灌溉下产量与腾发量均有不同程度的下降;设定灌溉下产量与腾发量规律不明显;无灌溉下产量与腾发量以下降为主;灌溉需水量有所减少,平均降幅8.4%;产量与耗水量大体上呈正相关关系。

Climate change affects crop growth that results in variation in crop water use and consequently irrigation requirement. This paper investigated the impact of the predicted climate with HadCM3 model using the IPCC scenarios of COMMIT, SRA1B, SRA2 and SRB1 on winter wheat growth and water use near Beijing under different irrigation treatments. Growth of winter wheat is simulated using CERES model. The conclusion includes （1）the air temperature will increase and the radiation will decrease during the growth season; （2）the growth duration will be shortened and it correlates negatively with air temperature; （3）under sufficient or no irrigation condition, yield and the evapotranspiration will decrease under different scenarios; （4）irrigation demand will reduce by 8.4% under sufficient irrigation; （5）wheat yield correlates positively with evapotranspiration.