甘州区社会经济系统水循环研究

Study on socio-economic water cycle in Ganzhou

研究甘州区社会经济系统水循环,为该区节水提供合理的政策建议,这对干旱区及全国节水型社会建设具有现实指导意义。构建甘州区"水资源投入产出表"形成甘州区社会经济水循环网络,并用上升性理论对其进行宏观分析,结果表明:上升性(A)从1997年80755.52万m3·bit增加到2006年121173.81万m3·bit,系统总吞吐量(T)从1997年97014.20万m3增加到2006年184605.02万m3,而平均相互信息(I)从1997年的0.83bit降到2000年以后为0.65bit左右。这表明甘州区对水资源的利用还处于初级阶段,主要靠增加用水量而不是优化用水结构为经济发展做贡献,对水资源的利用不可持续。基于上述分析,提出以下建议:提高用水效率,改变产业结构,调整种植业结构,延长产业链条等。

Based on the study on water cycle in socio-economic system in the Ganzhou district,Zhangyi City, proper political suggestions are provided for saving water. Socio-economic water cycle network of the Ganzhou district is constructed on the basis of input-output table of water resources. Analyzing the network by the theory of ascendency, it can conclude that： ascendency is increasing from 80 755.52×104m3·bit in 1997 to 121 173.81×104m3·bit in 2006, total system throughput is increasing from 97 014.20×104m3 in 1997 to 184 605.02×104m3 in 2006 and the average mutual information is decreasing from 0.83 bits to about 0.65 bits after 2000. The results show that with respect to water use, Ganzhou is still in the stage of growth,namely, developing economic mainly on augmenting water use quantity. It is unsustainable for water use. By the virtue of analysis above, the suggestions including the changing of industrial structure, strengthening of the relationship between sectors and regulating the structure of planting are proposed.