基于系统动力学的农业资源保障及其政策模拟:以黑龙江省为例

Agricultural resources guarantee and its policy simulation based on systematic dynamics:Taken Heilongjiang Province as example

从资源保障角度探讨区域农业发展过程中,由于地理资源的生态功能减弱,引起的农业资源承载能力下降问题,可以使区域农业发展在资源战略层面得到持续保障.对黑龙江省近20年来农产品增长与水土资源变化及其土地退化等系统要素,运用系统动力学与政策模拟方法进行复合模型的动态模拟研究,建立了黑龙江省农业资源保障的模拟模型,确定出适于该区域农业持续发展的资源保障与政策模拟方案,提出了需要解决的主要问题和调控举措.

Regional agricultural development could be continually secured on the level of resource strategy, if the problem of reduction of bearing capacity of agricultural resource in the development of regional agriculture, caused by the weakness on the ecologicai function of geography resource, was stressed from resource guarantee. With the methods of systemic dynamics and policy simulation, we used the complex model to study the dynamic simulation involving the systemic items such as agricultural products rise, water and land resource, and land degeneration in the past three decades in Heilongjiang Province. The simulation model for agricultural resource guarantee in Heilongjiang Province was established to make a plan of resource guarantee for regional agriculture sustainable development and policy simulation. The main problems to be solved and regulating measurements were proposed in this study.