产业集聚一定有利于产业成长吗?——基于中国制造业的实证分析

Is Industrial Agglomeration Certainly Beneficial to Industry Growth? An Empirical Study on Manufacturing in China

本文基于新经济增长理论,运用拓展的C-D函数和中国制造业1999-2008年两位数水平的制造业数据,实证考察了产业集聚对产业成长的影响以及这一影响与行业特性的关系。研究发现:产业集聚发展对产业成长总体上产生了负面效应,但不同行业的作用方向、程度及机理不仅与行业特性高度相关,而且也与集聚的周期性演化存在密切的关系;中国的低技术密集型行业、劳动密集型行业的集聚已经出现一定程度的"劳动拥挤效应"。据此,政府应该根据行业特性和产业集聚生命周期,调整产业发展和产业集聚政策,加速产业转移,以利于集聚的可持续发展和产业的健康成长。

Based on the new economic growth theory and by means of an expand Charles Cobb Paul Douglas function and two digit-manufacturing data in China,this paper empirically studys the impact of industrial agglomeration’s development on industry growth and the internal relation between such impact and industrial features.The results are as followings：firstly,industrial agglomeration’s development puts a negative effect on industry growth in general,but the influencing mechanism as well as the orientation and the intensity is different.They are not only correlated to the industrial features,but also closely related to the cyclical evolution of industrial agglomeration.Secondly,a certain degree of ＂labor crowding effect＂ has been emerged in China’s low-technology-intensive sectors and labor-intensive sectors with the development of industrial agglomeration.In order to speed up the process of industrial transfer,the government should adjust the policy of industry development and industrial agglomeration based on the industry features and that of its life cycle of agglomeration.