并非所有的需求性油价冲击都是类似的——关于国际油价需求性冲击的进一步分解

Not All Demand Oil Price Shocks Are Alike:Disentangling Two Types of Demand Oil Price Shocks in the Crude Oil Market

近年来国际石油问题研究的一个重点是重新审视导致国际油价波动的结构性原因。Kilian等学者的研究认为:传统上将国际油价波动归因于地缘政治、军事冲突等外生性供给影响因素的观点缺乏理论与实证的支撑,相反国际油价波动主要受到需求面冲击的影响。基于此,西方学者或明或暗地影射:伴随中国经济持续高速增长而来的需求增长是导致包括石油在内的大宗商品价格持续上涨的重要原因。本文的研究显示,将国际原油价格上涨的主要责任归咎于中国经济增长缺乏理论和实证依据,相反,以美元流动性泛滥为特征的需求性冲击可能具有重要影响。

Reconsidering the structural origins of international crude oil price fluctuation is one of hot research topics on international oil issues recently.Some scholars,Kilian for example,argue that the traditional viewpoint that the fluctuation of crude oil price was attributed to exogenous supply factors,such as geopolitical issues and military conflicts etc,lacks theoretical and empirical support.On the contrary,the crucial causes of crude oil price fluctuation are demand shocks.Mainstream scholars in the US indicate that China’s demand increase alongside the sustained rapid economic growth is an important driving force for the soaring prices of commodities including crude oil.Our study shows that the point that the soaring crude oil price should be attributed to China’s economic growth lacks theoretical and empirical evidence;in contrast,the demand shocks induced by overflow of US dollar liquidity has larger influence on crude oil price.