次贷危机下我国长三角地区对中部地区经济发展影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Impact of China’s Yangtze River Delta on the Economic Development of the Central Region under the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

2007年4月爆发的美国次贷危机波及了全球金融市场与实体经济,并引发了世界性金融危机,中国这一新兴市场国家同样受到了不同程度的影响。基于次贷危机发生前后两年(2005年至2009年)我国东部长三角地区与中部省级地区经济与金融统计数据,选取多维度指标体系,采用Granger检验、VAR模型、方差分解和脉冲响应函数等方法定量分析危机前、后这两个地区经济金融之间因果关系的变化,研究结果表明:"溢出效应"是本次次贷危机下长三角地区影响中部地区经济发展的主要途径。

The outbreak of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2007 spread to the global financial markets and the real economy and triggered a worldwide financial crisis. China, as one of the emerging market countries, is also affected to some different extents. Based on the economic and financial statistics data of the Yangtze River Delta region and the central provincial regions from 2005 to 2009 （two years before and after the financial crisis） in China, by selecting the multi-dimensional index system and adopting Granger test, VAR model, variance decomposition and impulse response function methods, this paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the changes of the causal relationship between economy and finance in the two regions before and after the financial crisis. The results show that under the sub-prime crisis the ＂Spillover Effect＂ is the major path of the influence of the Yangtze River Delta region upon the economic development of the central region.