随机冲击、国际贸易与经济波动

Stochastic Impact, International Trade and Economic Fluctuation

在后金融危机背景下,研究不确定性事件对我国进出口贸易进而对经济波动的影响显得更为有意义。在国内和国外不确定性事件的发生所带来的随机冲击中,国外事件特别是金融危机等经济事件对我国国际贸易造成了较为严重的负面影响;受滞后效应的影响,当前国际金融危机自2009年1月开始对我国国际贸易产生了较大的冲击;不确定性事件在对我国国际贸易带来负面影响的同时,也进一步冲击了我国的经济增长,引发了经济波动,产生了持久影响。

In the context of post-financial crisis, studies of impacts of uncertain events on China＇s import and export trade and further on the economic fluctuations are becoming more and more significant. Among the stochastic impacts brought forward by uncertain events at home and abroad, foreign events especially such economic events as financial crisis will leave significant negative impacts on China＇s international trade. Affected by the lagging effect, the present international financial crisis has made greater impact on China＇s international trade since January of 2009. While bringing negative influence to China＇s international trade, the uncertain events also impact China＇s economic growth, causing economic fluctuations and producing ever-lasting influences.