自主创新、技术转移与经济增长的动态均衡研究

Research on the Dynamic Equilibrium of Independent Innovation & Technology Transfer and Economic Growth

运用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果性检验等实证方法,研究了中国在1991-2008年的自主创新、技术转移与经济增长的动态均衡关系。结果表明,三者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;短期均衡中,滞后一期、二期的经济增长自身、自主创新能力、技术转移能力对经济增长的影响不是很显著;长期均衡中,自主创新能力、技术转移能力对经济增长的影响显著。自主创新与经济增长存在互为因果关系,经济增长是技术转移的原因,技术转移与自主创新存在互为因果关系。为此,我国应该采取有效措施,提升自主创新能力和技术转移能力,促进经济增长;同时促进三者间的良性互动。

This paper proceeds research of the dynamic equilibrium relationship of China＇s 1991-2008 year of independent innovation,technology transfer and economic growth,using cointegration tests,error correction model,Granger causality test and other empirical methods.The results shows that there exists the long-term stable equilibrium relationship among them.In the short run equilibrium,Lag one,two ability of economic growth itself,independent innovation,technology transfer capability have a not significant impact on economic growth.In the long run equilibrium,the ability of independent innovation,technology transfer capacity have an significant impact on economic growth.There are mutually causality between independent innovation and economic growth.Economic growth is the cause of technology transfer.There are mutually causality between technology transfer and innovation.To this end,China should take effective measures to enhance the capability of independent innovation and technology transfer capacity,to promote economic growth,while promoting positive interaction among them.