一种经验建模的客观分型方法及其应用

A METHOD OF EMPIRICAL MODELING AND OBJECTIVE TYPING AND ITS APPLICATION

介绍一种应用常规历史天气图资料进行天气学客观分型的思路和方法。首先建立某种天气发生的若干环流模型，然后确定各模型的判别条件和顺序，由计算机进行自动分型，得到各环流型样本，实现客观分型。此方法应用于威海市冬季分区降水预报系统的天气分型，降水模型物理意义明确，识别条件实用，系统自动化。

This paper introduces an objective synoptic typing method which uses the routine historical synoptic data. Some circulation patterns associated with a weather phenomenon are empirically summed up at first, discriminant conditions and sequence for each pattern are then determined. On the above basis, historical samples for each pattern can be obtained and automatically objective typing of circulations completed with computers. This method is used to deovelop the winter regional precipitation forecast system of Weihai city. The system has many characteristics such as the precipitation circulation patterns have clear physical means, the discriminant conditions are practical, and the system is automatic. At last the importance of synoptic typing in the interpretation and utilization of numerical products and several relevant points for attention are discussed.