地震中长期预测研究的进展和方向

PROGRESS AND PROSPECT IN THE STUDIES ON LONG AND MEDIUM TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

综述了地震中长期预测的研究历史和发展现状、存在问题及发展方向。地震中长期预测研究大体可以划分为确定性预测研究和概率性预测研究两个主要发展阶段。已有的预测模型和方法在地震复发模式、不确定性分析、断裂之间的相互作用、单一学科面临的资料缺乏等方面存在许多问题。今后一个时期内，地震中长期预测研究的主要发展方向为：建立地震复发模式、建立大陆板内地震复发间隔的通用概率分布模型、活动断裂定量研究资料的应用、不确定性分析、断裂之间的相互作用及其对地震危险性分析的影响以及多学科、多手段的综合运用等。

The progress, problem and prospect of long and medium term earthquake prediction research are outlined. The research history can be divided into two stages: definitive prediction and probability prediction. There are many problems in the existing models and methods such as earthquake recurrence model, analysis of non definition, interaction between faults and short of information. So, in the future, the main research fields of long and medium term earthquake prediction are as follows: ①Establish earthquake recurrence model, ②Establish a generic recurrence interval distribution model appropriate for intraplate earthquake, ③Application of the quantitative research date of active fault, ④Analysis of non definition, ⑤Interaction between faults and its effects, and ⑥Application of multidisciplinary approach.