一个考虑SST变化的月数值预报结果分析

AN ANALYSIS ON ONE MONTH NUMERICAL PRODICTION WITH CONSIDERING SST

根据陈隆勋等对海温月季变化研究的结果提出除了从冬到春的过渡月份外，ＳＳＴ距平的相邻月的月际变化不大。在此基础上，选了１９９６年６月并利用ＣＣＭ１动力气候模式作了月数值预报。在预报中，利用１９９６年６月１日００Ｚ中国国家气象中心Ｔ６４的客观分析资料作初值，利用１９９６年５月的ＳＳＴ距平加到６月气候ＳＳＴ作为６月的ＳＳＴ，作了一个月数值预报。结果表明，考虑了ＳＳＴ变化的数值预报优于用气候海温作的数值预报。前者的５００ｈＰａ高度场预报距平、８５０ｈＰａ纬向风预报距平、中国地区气温预报距平和降水预报距平分布均十分接近于实际观测分布。

Based on a result that the variation of SSTA between the adjcent month is small,an one month numerical predication of June,1996 is calculated by using CCM1/NCAR climate model.In the prediction,the initial value is taken from the objective analysics of T64 grid system of China National Meteorological Center for 00Z the first of June,1996.The SST distribution of June ,1996 is computed from June climate SST adding the SSTA of May,1996.For comparison,an one month prediction using the climate June SST is also calculated.It is shown that the prediction results of changed SST are greatly better than that using the climate SST.In the former case,the predicted deviation of the 500 hPa geopotential height in Norther Hemisphere,the zonal wind velocity at 850 hPa,the predicted devation of surface air temperature and the predicten percentage of rainfall deviation are quite same as that of observed.