气候系统可预报性的全局研究

GLOBAL STUDY ON CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY

胞映射方法是对非线性系统进行全局分析的强有力工具。文中基于一个最大简化的地－气耦合模式，引入胞映射全局分析方法，对气候系统的可预报性进行了全局的研究。气候系统存在最大可预报期限，对于超过逐日预报可预报期限后的预报，用胞映射思想证明了平均值的可预报性，并得到了定量的结果。研究表明，耦合机制具有延长可预报期限的作用。

Cell to cell mapping method is a powerful tool for globally analyzing into nonlinear system. By introducing the cell to cell mapping method, the predictability of climate in a most simplified air sea coupled model is studied in this paper. It is indicated that there exists a maximum predictability limit in climate prediction. For the prediction beyond the daily predictability limit, it is proved by using simple cell to cell mapping idea that mean value is predictable, and the quantitative result is obtained. The study also shows that both coupling mechanism and improvement of observational error prolongs the maximum predictability limit.