中国成品油市场的隐忧

Anxiety of China's Refined Product Market

2009-2010年我国新增炼油能力6450万吨/年,而2009年国内成品油表观消费量仅增长0.9%。尽管如此,受多种因素的驱动,国内炼化行业争上新炼油项目、竞相扩充产能的势头依然未减。随着今后几年国内新增炼油能力的不断投产,成品油资源过剩的矛盾将愈加凸显,国内炼化行业可持续发展的隐忧将更加突出:原油对外依存度不断增高;成品油市场调控难度加大;产品出口压力增加;新建产能无法高负荷运转;物流瓶颈和市场饱和使"北油南运"持续受阻;炼化企业库存居高难下。鉴于单纯依靠市场自我调节的作用不明显,建议政府站在"全国一盘棋"的角度,统筹调控产能增速,加快淘汰落后产能,提高成品油储备能力,扩大成品油管道运输能力,促进我国炼化行业实现又好又快的发展。

During 2009-2010,64.5 million tons per year refining capacities are newly increased in China,while in 2009 the apparent consumption of domestic refined products only increased 0.9%.However,the domestic large groups still compete on new oil refining projects,competing to expand production capacity.With the domestic large oil refining projects going into operation in the next few years,the contradiction of the refined products surplus become more and more obvious.There are anxieties among the sustainable development of domestic refining industries:dependence on foreign crude oil will continue to increase;refined products market regulating will become more difficult;newly added capacity may not be operated with high-load;the transportation of refined products from the northern to the south may continuously be impeded;Refinery inventories may remain in high level.It is suggested that the government take the overall situation of the country into consideration,coordinate and control the increasing speed of refinery capacity,and speed up the elimination of the backward capacity,increase the storage capacity of and pipeline transport capacity of refined products,so as to promote the good and fast development of the refining industry.