中国大陆强震中期预报指标研究

STUDY ON MEDIUM TERM PREDICTION INDEXES OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN THE MAINLAND OF CHINA

在总结近几年预报经验的基础上，主要依据地震活动性资料，从分析全球大震活动规律入手，采用概率预测推理方法对一些重要的相关地震事件或现象进行了深入的分析研究，提出了一系列可用于中国大陆７级大震预测及趋势估计的中期指标．

On the basis of experiences for earthquake prediction in recent years, in the light of the data of seismicity,starting with analysis of the law of great earthquake activity in global, adopting the method of reasoning from probability calculation, some important relative events and phenomena are deeply studied. A series of medium term prediction indexes are developed which can be used to forecast the large earthquake (M S≥7.0) in the mainland of China.