环境风险知觉和评价的整体框架

A holistic framework for environmental risk perception and evaluation

环境风险通常发生在一定时间之后,以某种可能性发生在某个特定的地方,使得某些人群受到影响。因此,环境风险是典型的多维度事件,它涵盖四个基本的偏好维度:时间、空间、概率与社会性,每个维度都可能导致环境风险知觉和评价出现折扣(discount)现象。但是,传统视角往往关注单一维度,主要是时间,因而割裂了维度的整体性。基于环境风险的多维度特征,提出了一个统一的多维度偏好框架,为环境风险知觉及评价提供整体性视角。这四个偏好维度统一的内在原因是心理距离。维度共性意味着时间维度上的折现机制能够应用到其它维度,为此,对环境风险跨期评价中关于折现率热点问题的研究进展进行了一个关键的梳理。未来有必要在此整体框架下,重点关注三个方面的问题:(1)环境折现率,对环境折现率的要素及其关系进行规范性分析,进而分析环境贴现率与经济贴现率之间的关系,及双率折现对可持续发展的涵义;(2)基于维度共性,将时间维度上的研究结论应用到其它维度;(3)研究多重维度复合情形下的偏好和评价问题,建立综合性描述模型,依托具体案例探讨有效的环境风险沟通策略、环境政策和制度设计。

Environmental risks usually occur with delayed consequences,by certain levels of uncertainty at distant places and are borne by some people.Therefore environmental risks are typical in that they involve four fundamental preference dimensions（un-certainty,temporal,spatial and social distance）,each of which may result in a discounting in risk perception and evaluation.However,traditional perspective usually focused on simple dimension,mainly time,consequently isolated the integrity of dimensions.Based on the multi-dimension characteristic,a unified preference framework is proposed to provide a holistic perspective for environmental risk perception and evaluation.The underlying reason for this integrity is psychological distance.Dimension similarity implies the application of temporal discounting mechanism across other dimensions;therefore a critical review on discount rate in inter-temporal environmental risk evaluation is performed.Three aspects deserve to pay attention under this holistic framework：（1）environmental discount rate,including normative analysis of its elements,of the relationship between environmental discount rate and economic discount rate,of policy implication of duel-rate discounting;（2）generalization of conclusions about how discounting affects judg-ment and choice across different dimensions;（3）the issue of preference and evaluation under combined dimensions,building com-prehensive descriptive model and discussing environmental risk communication,policy design based on cases.