基于Logistic模型的我国高技术产品出口增长研究

Study about Growth of China's High-tech Products Export Based on Logistic Curve

高技术产品出口能力是衡量一国或地区经济实力、科技实力和出口实力的重要指标。本文分析了我国近16年高技术产品出口额占总出口额的比重变化特征,结合我国发达省市的出口现状,拟合出该比重的Logistic增长曲线模型,得出我国高技术产品出口的发展已步入了缓慢增长期的结论,并对我国未来一段时间这一指标值进行预测及原因分析,进而提出了相应的对策建议。

Export capability of high-tech products is an important index in judging the strength of economy, science ＆ technology and export of one country or region. This paper analyzes the changing character of the ratio of China＇ s high-tech products export to total export in the past 16 years. Then it fits out a Logistic growth curve model of this ratio by combining the present situation in high-tech products export of some developed provinces in our country. On this basis, it concludes that the development of China＇ s high-tech products export has been in a stage of slow growth, and predicts and analyzes the tendency of this ratio for a period in the future. At last, it puts forward some corresponding countermeasures.