货币政策影响房价的区域差异性——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

Monetary Policy Affect Housing Price in Regional Difference Empirical Analysis Basing on China Provincial Panel Data

依据1999—2008年商品房房屋平均销售价格水平,运用聚类分析法将我国31个省(市、自治区)划分为高房价地区、中房价地区和低房价地区三类,根据房价和货币政策变量建立panel data模型,实证研究货币政策对房价的影响。研究结果表明,货币政策对房价具有一定的宏观调控作用,但存在区域差异性较大、货币政策传导效果不明显等问题。

Basing on the average selling price of commercialized building from 1999 to 2008, we classify the 31 provinces into high, medium and low housing price regions by using the clustering method, then set up panel data model to analyze the effects of monetary policies on housing price. The results show that the monetary policies, to some extent, are effective in controlling housing price, however, the effects of one same monetary policy are different in different regions. And we also find some other problems, for instance, the monetary transmission mechanism is not obvious.