中国对外贸易是否面临比较优势陷阱风险:理论分析与经验证据

Does China's Foreign Trade Face the Danger of Comparative Advantage Tap:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence

本文通过利用我国十八个数据完整的省市的面板数据,定量分析了我国出口贸易行业是否面临比较优势陷阱风险。通过时间序列的主成分因子分析,电子及通信设施行业产品的出口,对于我国整体外贸出口影响很小;进一步的实证检验得出初级产业的生产总值与电子及通信设备行业出口额之间,呈现显著的负相关关系。在此基础上从后发优势的角度,阐述了我国面临对外贸易陷阱风险的原因。

This paper uses 18 provinces and cities exports of electronic and communication equipment industry panel data, analyses the comparative advantage trap in the sector. The empirical results show that： the component factor in time series of principal analysis indicates that the sector exports don＇t influence China＇s overall foreign trade much. Then it shows a significant negative correlation between the communication equipment industry export and gdp of primary industry. Based the Empirical Evidence, we find that China do face the danger of comparative advantage tap.