危机后全球利率政策如何调整

Worldwide Interest Rate Adjustment in Post-crisis Era

2010年以来,各国经济相继恢复增长,但由于复苏的不平衡性,各国利率政策调整出现分歧。最近,随着复苏进程加快,分歧进一步扩大,不仅不同国家的利率政策继续向着不同方向调整,而且同一国家的中央银行内部也对利率政策取向产生分歧。从目前情况看,为了促进经济复苏,主要发达国家坚守超低利率政策不变。为了防止可能出现的通货膨胀,一些发展中国家相继进入加息通道。由于复苏进程受挫,一些欧洲国家继续降低利率。未来各国利率政策的走向,主要取决于本国的宏观经济形势和经济复苏进程。同时,美元汇率的变动也会对全球利率政策调整产生一定影响。

Since 2010,the world economy has recovered in succession.However,as the unbalance of the recovery process,the collision of each country’s interest rate adjustment policy occurred.Recently,the economy recovery speeds up,while the collision becomes more intense,as not only different countries adjust interest rate to various directions,but also some central banks dispose different interest rate policy in domestic.Currently,the main developed countries persist the super low interest rate as a stimulate to further economic growth.In case of inflation,some developing countries increase the interest rate.As suffered a lot from the economy reverses,several European countries lower the interest rate.The choice of future interest rate direction mainly depends on the national macro-economy situation and the process of economy recovery.Meanwhile,the fluctuation of USD exchange rate will affect the interest rate adjustment policy worldwide.