浙江省滑坡泥石流预报预警系统

Forecast and Warning System for Rainfall Induced Landslides in Zhejiang Province

浙江的滑坡泥石流预报预警系统主要由3个部分组成:基于GIS和自组织人工神经网络的滑坡泥石流时空概率预报系统(aiNet-GISPSRIL)、基于ArcIMS的WebGIS预报预警信息发布系统和应急指挥系统。自2003年7月以来,该系统一直被浙江省国土资源厅和浙江省气象局应用于滑坡泥石流预报预警工作。在2003-2009年的雨季期间,预报系统共发布3级以上预报189次。在这期间,实际发生的可验证的滑坡(包括泥石流)共633处,其中411处在预报的时间内发生并与预报有滑坡泥石流的网格单元(1km×1km)吻合,预报成功率为65%。由于系统提供了及时和较准确的预报预警,使政府有关部门能够及时组织处于危险区的人员撤离,使2009人避免了伤亡。这个滑坡泥石流预报预警系统为在我国其它多雨的丘陵山区建设对降雨引发滑坡泥石流的预报预警系统提供了一个原型。

The forecast and warning system of the rainfall induced landslides in Zhejiang mainly consists of 3 components：（1） aiNet and GIS -based real -time warning system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall induced landslides（aiNet is an artificial neural network based on a self-organizing system）,（2） ArcIMS and WebGIS-based warning information issue system,and（3） emergency command system.Since July 2003,this warning system has been used in Zhejiang province and jointly operated by Zhejiang Provincial Department of Land and Resources（ZJDLR） and Zhejiang Provincial meteorological Bureau（ZJMB）.During the period 2003 to 2009,totally 189 landslip warning messages were issued jointly by ZJDLR and ZJMB,totally 633 verifiable landslides were reported,of which 411 landslides occurred in the predicted times and the warned areas with risk level greater than or equal to 3.The hit rate of the forecast is 65%.Because this system provided the probability levels of landslide occurrences up to 24-hour in advance,gave locations of potential landslides,and timely warned those who were at high risk areas,more than 2000 persons living in the risk sites were timely evacuated from the risk area before the landslides occurred and thus avoided casualties.This highly computerized,easy -operating system can be used as a prototype for developing forecasting systems in other regions that are prone to the rainfall induced landslides.