基于城市发展环境突变的人口预测方法分析——以防城港中心城为例

Analysis of Methods for Urban Population Projection Based on Mutation of Urban Development

城市人口预测的方法多种多样,尤其是对外部环境突变的城市,其人口预测有一定的特殊性。本文就防城港市中心城人口分析预测问题,提出了港口吞吐量关联法、固定资产投资法、产业类比法等预测方法,并通过水资源容量进行校核,从而得出较切合实际的人口预测值。

The paper analyses population projection by methods of port capacity, investment in fixed assets and industry analogy for development of urban central area of Fangchenggang city, which should be checked by water resource volume.