纸业毛利率水平下半年有望触底回升

Gross profit margin for paper industry expects to touch bottom in the second half of 2010

造纸行业毛利率目前正处于平稳周期(大致在12%～15%之间波动)。2010年下半年,原材料价格有望出现回调;同时由于库存和下游承受能力等方面的原因,纸品价格在三季度可能出现下滑;在原材料价格和纸品价格同时下滑的背景下,行业的短期盈利能力无法用价格走势来判断,但目前行业毛利率水平为12.40%,接近上述区间的底部,而从长期来看,造纸行业整体供需状况大格局未变,因此行业毛利率水平后期有望触底回升。

Analysts in the Qilu Sucurities Research Institute think gross profit margin for paper industry is in the smooth cycle, fluctuating between 12% and 15%.In the second half of 2010, the price of raw materials will be expected to rebound, meanwhile the price of finished paper is likely to slide down in the third quarter because of the storage and the supporting ability from the downstream industries. In the background of the price of both raw materials and paper products sliding down, industry profitability in short term can not be determined with price tendancy. But the current gross profit margin is 12.4%, closing to the bottom of the variation range. From the viewpoint of long-term, gross profit margin for paper industry willl be expected to touch bottom and return to rise with no change in the structure for supply and demand of the whole industry.