卢氏县暴雨趋势预报方法探讨

Forecast Method of Rainstorm Tendency in Lushi County

利用卢氏站1952-2005年汛期7—8月暴雨日资料，分析了暴雨发生时的单站要素和能量变化特征，结果表明：强降水开始前，单站气温高、气压低、饱和差大，降水开始时气温降低、气压升高、饱和差减小；强降水开始前，低空西南急流不断为暴雨区上空输送高温、高湿空气，使这一地区积聚了大量的不稳定能量，暴雨一般出现在高能舌附近850hPapθse较密集的能量锋区上。根据上述要素变化特征及不同影响系统，筛选出不同系统影响时的预报指标，建立了卢氏单站暴雨预报模式。

Using rainstorm day data of flood season （from July to August） from 1952 to 2005 in Lushi station, the factors and energy variation features were analyzed. The results show that： before heavy rainfall start, the temperature is high, air pressure is low, saturation deficit is big; when heavy rainfall started, the temperature droped, air pressure rose, saturation deficit decreased; before heavy rainfall start, southwesterly low-level jet continuously convey high temperature, high humidity air over the rainfall areas, making a great deal instability energy accumulated in this region, and the heavy rainfall always happens in the energy frontal zone near the high energy tongue and has intensive θse at 850 hPa. According to the factors variation features and different effect systems,the forecast indexex were screened out, and Lushi heavy rainfall prediction model was established.