MM5在国家气象中心CRAY-C92的实时预报试验尝试

REAL TIME FORECAST EXPERIMENTS USING MM5 IN NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

该文利用国家气象中心ＣＲＡＹ－Ｃ９２计算机上初步建成的一个可与实时资料连接的ＭＭ５中尺度预报试验系统，探讨在目前国家气象中心计算机资源和可获取的实时资料条件下，进行实时预报服务的可行性及可能达到的精度，采用３０ｋｍ水平分辨率的模式，在１９９６年夏季北方汛期进行了一个半月的实时预报试验，在１９９７年６～７月间“庆香港回归”天气服务过程中作了实时预报服务．预报及检验结果表明：ＭＭ５模式在强降水预报方面比业务模式ＨＬＡＦＳ有较明显的改进，能预报出某些中尺度降水的细化特征，对暴雨和大暴雨落区预报有较好的参考价值；该模式可以作为城市预报的补充工具；就目前计算机和资料条件，比６ｈ时段更短的高频城市降水模式预报尚很难得到满意效果．

A mesoscale experimental forecast system has been established in the CRAY C92 computer in National Meteorological Center (NMC) based on PSU/NCAR's mesoscale model MM5(version 2), to which the local real time data resources are linked. In order to investigate the feasibility and the accuracy of the mesoscale system for real time prediction service under the current conditions of computer resources and of the available real time data in NMC, the real time forecast experiments are conducted for one and half months during the flood season of northern China in 1996 and in the special weather service period of 'Hongkong returning to China' in 1997 using the system with 30 km horizontal resolution. The real time forecast and verification results show that the forecasts of the precipitation amounts and the heavy rain locations are improved by MM5 more obviously than those by operational model(HLAFS): The mesoscale system could be used as a supplement tool for the weather forecast of city and precipitation model forecasts in higher frequency(less than 6 hours) could not be successful under the current data and computer resources.