近百年上海气候变暖过程的再认识——平均温度与最低、最高温度的对比

RENEWED STUDY ON THE WARMING PROCESS OF SHANGHAI DURING THE PAST 100 YEARS

该文就近１１３年（１８８０～１９９２年）上海逐月平均最低、最高和平均气温３个序列进行了深入细致的诊断分析．结果发现：最低气温和平均气温近百年虽都呈显著上升趋势，但前者比后者更为持续稳定，其增温率更高于后者．这一特点表明，最低气温对于监测温度效应加剧可能更为敏感；最高气温自本世纪４０年代中后期却出现了明显的趋势转折．近百年上海气候变暖主要表现为三次突然增暖，其中１０年代的增暖仅限于白天，３０年代则以白天增暖较多，８０年代以来则主要发生于夜间．这些事实将有助于进一步对上海及中国区域或全球变暖的再认识．

The detailed investigation is carried out in terms of mean monthly, maximun and minimum temperature series of Shanghai from 1880 to 1992. The results indicate that minimum and mean temperatures have obvious increasing trend, especially for the former. From these results, it is known that minimum temperature would be more sensitive to monitor the intensity of greenhouse effect; and maximum temperature exhibited remarkable inflexion trend in the middle and late of 1940s. There were three abrupt warmings,i.e.1910s,1930s and the early of 1980s,of the which the first two occurred in daytime,only the last mainly in nighttime.These facts would contribute to renewed study on the warming process of Shanghai,China or the globe.