盐穴地下储气库风险评估技术与控制措施

Risk Assessment Technique and Control Measures of Salt Cavern Underground Gas Storage

从风险评价标准、风险识别因素、失效概率和失效后果计算等方面,介绍了盐穴地下储气库风险评估技术的研究进展。基于盐穴地下储气库风险评估从定性向定量化发展的趋势,提出了实施定量风险评估的关键技术,包括分析评估单元的划分、风险因素的识别、失效模式确定、事件发生概率的计算、事件发生后果的计算、风险计算、风险容忍度的确定等。基于风险控制目标和步骤,提出了设置监控井、规范监/检测作业和维修更换管理、设置防护栏和预测盐穴体积收缩率等盐穴储气库风险控制措施。

Research progress in risk assessment technique for salt cavern underground gas storage is introduced from the facets of risk assessment evaluation standard,risk identification factor,failure probability and failure consequence.Based on the development tendency of risk assessment for salt cavern underground gas storage from qualitative study to quantitative study,key methodology in implementing quantitative risk assessment is presented including partition of analysis assessment unit,identification of risk factor,determination of failure mode,calculation of probability of occurrence,calculation of event consequence of occurrence, risk calculation and determination of risk tolerability,etc.According to risk control objective and step,risk control measures for salt cavern underground gas storage are put forward in setting up monitoring well,standardizing monitoring/inspection operation and maintenance/management,putting up protective guard and forecasting volumetric shrinkage of salt cavern.