宝鸡市经济与环境系统耦合协调度分析

The analysis of coupling coordination between economy and environment system in Baoji city

借助耦合协调度模型对1989-2008年宝鸡市经济与环境系统的耦合协调度进行定量分析.结果表明:(1)宝鸡市经济系统综合发展水平呈阶段性上升,而环境系统综合发展水平变化相对平缓,但近几年呈下降趋势.(2)两系统间的耦合协调度波动上升.2002年以前,基本处于轻度失调、濒临失调状态,且属于经济发展滞后型,2002年之后,处于勉强协调状态,且过渡到环境滞后型.(3)采用灰色预测模型对协调度进行预测,发现未来10年宝鸡市的经济与环境系统的耦合协调度将继续上升,协调水平将进一步提高.(4)分析指出经济结构不合理,经济效益、经济活力不高,环境污染等问题是限制两系统协调发展的主要因子.

The article makes a quantitative assessment of Coupling Coordination Degree between Economy and Environment System（CCDEE） in Baoji city from 1989-2008 by coupling coordination model. The result shows that economy system comprehensive development level of Baoji city was rising periodically, while environment system comprehensive development level changed gently, but discreased in recent years. CCDEE rose volatility. Before 2002, CCDEE was in a state of mild disorder, and economic development lagged behind. Since 2002, CCDEE was in a state of reluctant coordination, and environmental development lagged behind. Using Grey Prediction model to predict the coordination degree, in the next 10 years of Baoji city, CCDEE will continue to rise, the coordination level will be further improved. It was found that the fators, such as the irrational economic structure, the low economic benefit and vitality, and the environmental pollution, limitted the coordinated development between the two systems.