中国财政政策的外部均衡效应:相对效力检验

The External Balancing Effect of Chinese Fiscal Policy:a Test of Relative Potency

中国国际收支"双顺差"的长期存在,表明中国经济存在一定程度的外部失衡。基于蒙代尔政策指派理论模型以及协整检验和误差修正模型的实证估计,可以发现中国财政政策对外部均衡的相对调控效力要优于货币政策,因此中国应运用出口退税等财政政策来促进外部均衡的实现,并考虑选择发行超长期债券方式为财政赤字融资,同时还应及时完善其他宏观经济政策,从而实现中国经济长期稳定的协调发展。

The long- term ＂double surplus＂ of Chinese balance of payments shows that external disequilibrium exists to a certain degree in Chinese economy. The empirical researches based on Mundell＇ s policy assignment theory, co - integration test and error correction model find that the controlling potency for external equilibrium of Chinese fiscal policy is better than that of monetary policy. Therefore China should use the fiscal policy such as export rebate to realize external equilibrium, consider issuing super - long - term bonds to finance for financial deficit and meanwhile perfect other macro economic policy to realize the long - term stable and harmonious development of Chinese economy.