基于空间面板数据的中国房地产市场财富效应研究

On the Wealth Effect of China's Real Estate Market Studied with Spatial Panel Data

目前,人们对股市财富效应的研究已较为成熟。相比之下,对于房地产市场财富效应的研究却不是十分透彻。采用空间面板数据分析方法,研究了1999—2008年以来我国房地产市场价格的空间特征和财富效应。研究结果表明:31个省市区的房地产价格和城镇居民日常消费均呈现出空间聚集趋势,而且东部和中西部地区的空间聚集现象较为明显;空间相邻关系对人们的长期消费具有显著影响;从全国范围来看,房地产市场呈现出负向财富效应。

Nowadays the wealth effect of stock market has been studied in depth,but the study on the wealth effect of real estate market is not so fruitfully in China.The spatial panel data from the year 1999 to 2008 are used to study the spatial aggregation and wealth effect of China＇s real estate market price,based on spatial autoregression model.The results show that both the real estate price and daily consumption of urban residents in 31 provinces tend to spatial aggregation which is comparatively obvious in the east and mid-west regions.The spatial adjacency affects greatly people＇s long-time consumption.In a nationwide view,the wealth effect of real estate market is significantly negative as shown in some exemplifications.