初始对准误差对目标落入概率影响的简化分析

Influence of Initial Alignment Error of Missile on Target Acquisition Probability

随着现代战争的发展,潜射导弹已成为日益重要的中等规模打击力量,因此,快速而准确地在潜艇上对导弹捷联惯导系统进行初始对准,就成为潜射导弹的一项关键技术。初始对准误差越大,自控终点误差就会越大,目标落入概率越小;另外,目标散布误差越大,目标落入概率也会减小。基于初始对准误差对自控终点误差的影响,综合目标散布误差模型,仿真计算出某型潜射导弹初始对准误差对目标落入概率的影响,结果表明,该型导弹初始对准精度高,结果可信,并且为在项目论证阶段不具备完备的总体数据支持的条件下,进行其他型号导弹的初始对准精度指标分配提供了理论依据。

The submarine-launched missile plays an important role in modern warfare.Therefore,the rapid and accurate initial alignment of missile SINS on moving submarine becomes one of the critical technologies for the submarine-launched missiles.The larger the initial alignment error is,the greater the auto-control terminal error,and the less the target acquisition probability.If the target scattering error becomes greater,the acquisition probability will also decrease.Considering the effect of initial error on auto-control terminal error,and based on the model of target scattering error,we calculated out the influence of initial error of a certain submarine-launched missile on target acquisition probability.The result showed that the initial alignment of this type of missile has high precision.The study may be taken as a reference for analyzing the initial alignment error of other types of missile when there is not enough missile data support at verification stage.