基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的河南省能源需求量预测

Energy Demand Forecast of Henan Province by Using Gray Models GM(1,1)

能源需求预测是制定能源规划的重要组成部分。鉴于能源需求系统复杂性和非线性的特征,本文结合河南省能源需求的历史数据,利用格兰杰因果关系定性地分析了能源需求量和经济的关系,然后用模型预测河南省2008-2015年能源需求量并提出河南省能源发展战略。

Energy demand forecast for energy planning is an important component of the development of energy planning.In view of the characteristics of the complexity and non-linear of Demand for energy system,in this paper,combination with the historical data of energy demand in Henan Province,we analyze the relationship between the energy demand and economic relations by Granger causal relation models,and then give the forecast of energy demand between 2008 and 2015,and the energy development strategy in Henan Province by using Gray model.