河南省稻麦类作物对气候变化的响应

Responses of Wheat and Rice Crops to Climate Change in Henan Province

小麦和水稻是世界最重要的粮食作物。利用河南省小麦和水稻的历史观测资料,结合DSSAT-CERES小麦和ORYZA2000水稻模拟模型,分析和模拟河南省稻麦类作物在历史气候变化条件下生育期和产量的变化。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期长度呈缩短趋势,但播种-越冬天数平均每10 a增加1.7 d,开花到乳熟天数平均每10 a增加2-4 d,返青后各生育期均表现出不同程度的提前;水稻各生育期均有不同程度的提前,尤其是拔节期以前,分蘖前的生育期间隔天数以缩短为主,拔节后以延长为主。雨养小麦模拟产量和水氮增产潜力均呈减少趋势;随着播种期的提前,水稻减产趋势逐渐减弱。

Wheat and rice are the most important grain crops in the world.By using the crop growth simulation model DSSAT-CERES Wheat and ORYZA2000,and the observational data of winter wheat and rice in Henan province,the responses of phenological development and yields of wheat and rice to climate change were analyzed.The results indicate that： the growth duration of winter wheat is shortening,however,duration between seeding and wintering prolongs 1.7 days every 10 years,and duration between flowering and milky ripe delays 2-4 days every 10 years.Most phenological stages after green turning stage move forward;the phenological stages of rice also advance,and the duration is shortening before tillering while extending after jointing.The simulated rainfed and potential yields that water and nitrogen promoted is decreasing for wheat,and for rice,the yield reduction is wear off by bringing forward the sowing dates.