基于实物期权的BOT项目特许期决策模型研究

The Research on the Concession Term Decision-Making Model for BOT Projects Based on Real Option

特许期的确定,是"建造-运营-转移"项目中政府与私人投资集团谈判的主要内容之一。在考虑了单阶段特许期结构下的私人投资者具有等待期权价值,建立包含实物期权价值的特许期决策模型,并将其应用到交通运输基础设施项目的投资决策实践中。与传统的净现值方法的对比分析表明,考虑期权价值后,项目可以在较短的特许期内获得同样的预期收益,为双方的特许权期谈判提供了决策依据。

The determination of concession term is one of the main contents during the negotiation between the government and private investment group in BOT project.This paper considers the value of deferment option which embedded in the investment process of private investor in the one period Concession Term,establishes a concession term decision model including option value,and then applies this model into a transportation infrastructure project.Through comparing and analyzing with traditional Net Present Value method,the result shows that the project can acquire same expected return in shorter concession term when take the option value into consideration,and provides a decision basis for both sides during the concession term negotiation.