投资冲击、全要素生产率冲击与中国经济波动——基于RBC模型估计结果的分析

China's Business Cycle from the Shocks to Investment and Technologies:An Analysis Based on the Estimation of RBC Model

基于一个包含投资冲击和全要素生产率冲击的RBC模型的最大似然估计,分析了投资冲击和全要素生产率冲击对我国实际经济波动的影响。计量分析结果表明,全要素生产率冲击是我国实际经济波动的主要来源,而投资冲击对我国实际经济波动的影响比较小。分析认为稳步促进我国全要素生产率的提高是促进我国经济持续稳定增长的最重要的措施。

This paper analyzes China＇ s economic fluctuation based on the estimation of RBC model . The positive analysis indicates TFP（ Total Factors Productivity） shocks have more impacts on real economy fluctuation , while the investment shocks have little impacts whether in the short run or in the long run . So the policy meaning of these conclusions is that we should make policies to improve steadily TFP ensuring our economy growth steadily.