中国财政政策对居民消费的非线性效应:理论和实证

Theoretical and Empirical Research of Non-linear Effects on Resident Consumption of Fiscal Policy in China

使用中国1978—2004年度27个省份的面板数据和虚拟变量法考察了中国财政政策对居民消费的非线性效应并对其形成的预期机制进行了检验。实证结果表明，中国财政政策在正常时期和非正常时期分别表现为非凯恩斯效应和凯恩斯效应，预期机制被证实。

This paper investigates non-linear effects of resident consumption caused by fiscal policy in China using an annual balanced panel for 27 provinces over the period of 1978 - 2004 and durmny variable method. The result shows that during normal period, the fiscal policy in China indeed has Non- Keynesian effects, but during abnormal period, it has Keynesian effects. At last, it gives some specific policy implications.