人民币升值对通货膨胀的抑制效应分析——基于一个动态CGE的分析

An Analysis on the Inhibitory Effect of RMB Appreciation on Inflation——Analysis Based on a Dynamic CGE Angle

汇率作为价格体系的一个重要组成部分,是一国国内物价水平的重要影响因素,但汇率对不同价格指标的影响效果和影响渠道是不同的。本文采用动态CGE模型—MCHUGE分析人民币升值对当前中国通货膨胀的影响,研究结果表明:人民币升值能够有效地平抑物价,减轻通胀压力并防止通胀进一步扩散;在短期内,一次性大幅升值会造成投资的迅速增长,这种增长将刺激资产价格暴涨,提高投资成本,使得热钱涌入难以为继,长期来看并不会造成投资的紊乱;人民币升值在短期内温和刺激劳动力市场,拉动实际工资上涨,提高居民实际购买力,但长期并不会调高劳动力成本,拉动CPI走高。

As an important component of price system,the exchange rate is a pivotal influencing factor on the national price level.Adopting dynamic CGE Model-MCHUGE,the issue analyzes the impact of RMB appreciation to the inflation in China.The result shows that RMB appreciation is able to restrain the price level,to release the inflationary pressure,and to prevent the further proliferation of inflation efficiently;In the short term,the one-appreciation will result in a rapid increase in investment;the increase will stimulate asset price to soarand improve the investment cost to prevent the flowing in of hot money,while no disorder of investment will be made in the long haul;RMB appreciation gently stimulates the labour market over the short time,drives the real wage up,and improves the residents＇ actual purchasing power;but in the long term,the appreciation will not raise the labour cost and not pull the CPI higher.