制造业扩散的时刻是否已经到来

Whether the Time Has Come for Manufacturing Dispersion

改革开放以来中国制造业集聚水平是否一直处于上升的趋势?本文以此为研究目标,利用1998～2007年规模以上中国工业企业微观数据库详细分析了制造业区位分布的变化。我们发现,尽管沿海地区仍然是国内制造业的集聚区域,但是以2004年为界,制造业集聚的拐点已经开始显现;具体说来,在1998～2004年期间由于浙江、江苏与山东等省份的产业集聚能力增强致使中国制造业总体上呈现出集聚趋势,在2004～07年期间由于广东、江苏与上海等省市的产业向中部地区与北部沿海地区扩散,使制造业总体上呈现扩散趋势。同时,相对于国外发达国家发展经验来说,地级城市间的制造业集聚水平仍然较低。

Since the reform and opening up policy,the level of China's manufacturing agglomeration has kept an upward trend? With this research aim,this paper makes a detailed analysis of changes in manufacturing location using China's micro-database of industrial plants above certain scale from 1998-2007. We find that although coastal areas remaining the dominant position,the inflexion of industrial agglomeration has began to appear. Specifically,while from 1998 to 2004,China's overall manufacturing industry showed a trend of agglomeration because industrial agglomeration forces are reinforced in provinces such as Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Shandong. From 2004 to 2007,China's overall manufacturing industry showed a trend of dispersion because the manufacturing industries in areas like Guangdong,Jiangsu and Shanghai shifts to central areas and northern coastal areas. Meanwhile,compared with the experiences in developed countries,the level of industrial concentration remains low among cities.