人因差错对大坝防洪风险率的影响

Human errors and their effects on the dam risk ratio

人因差错是影响大坝防洪安全的一个重要因素,在大坝设计、施工和管理的不同阶段,各种人因差错都可能造成大坝防洪安全性的降低.针对大坝防洪安全管理的特点,探讨了成败型和连续型人因差错的概率模拟方法:成败型人因差错采用Bernoulli过程的Beta分布进行模拟;连续型人因差错通过区分变量的固有随机性和人因差错导致的变异性,利用全概率公式进行模拟.通过算例,验证了本文建议的人因差错概率模拟模型具有一定的实用性和合理性.

Human errors have some important impacts on the dam safety.During the different stages of dam design,construction and runtime,any negligible human errors can cause dam safety descending.In regard to dam safety management,two kinds of probability simulation methods of success-failure human error and continuous human error are put forward.The Beta distribution of Bernoulli process is adopted to simulate the success-failure type human error.And for the continuous one,the total probability theorem is used to simulate it by differentiating the inherent randomness of the variables and the corresponding variability caused by human errors.The analysis of the effect of human errors on the dam safety shows that the probability simulation methods for the human errors have their practicability and rationality to some extent.