摘要
大坝溃决应急预案的预见性,直接关系到预案的实用有效性.探索分析了水库溃坝预见性的含义,拟定了主要包括大坝溃决模式、溃坝洪水、洪水演进、淹没风险图和后果评估共5个子指标的指标体系.基于层次分析法和工程经验,确定了5个子指标的权重及综合评价方法.根据研究的预见性评价方法,对《贵州省贵阳市松柏山水库、花溪水库大坝安全管理应急预案》的预见性进行了评价,评价结果与该《预案》专家评审会中得出的结论相当.
The validity of emergency plan is extremely impacted by whether it has predictability or not.In this paper,the concept of predictability for dam failure emergency plan is explored,and index systems including five sub indicators which are respectively ＇failure mode＇,＇failure flood＇,＇flood progress＇,＇flood inundating risk map＇ and ＇consequence assessment＇ are explained and weights of five sub indicators are decided based on AHP method and relevant project experience.And a comprehensive evaluation method is studied at last.Based on the method put forward in this paper,a project example is presented,and the result of predictability evaluation for Songboshan reservoir and Huaxi reservoir emergency plan is given.The conclusion from predictability evaluation is even the same as that from the examination meeting.
出处
《水利水运工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期45-52,共8页
Hydro-Science and Engineering
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAC14B00)
水利部"948"计划项目(S70702)
南京水利科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金(重点项目)(Y710002)
南京水利科学研究院研究生基金资助项目(YY70801)
关键词
溃坝
应急预案
预见性
评价方法
dam failure
emergency plan
predictability
evaluation method
