基于时间序列模型的中国物流成本结构分析

The Structural Analysis of Logistics Cost in China Based on the Time-series Model

分析了1991-2008年间我国物流成本各要素的发展阶段及其成因,阐述了物流成本结构管理的意义,利用SAS、SPSS等软件对物流成本中的运输成本、库存成本和管理费用占总成本的比例拟合时间序列模型,并根据模型对未来几年我国物流成本各要素比例进行了预测,最后将预测结果进行横向和纵向比较,可以看出未来几年我国物流成本结构没有太大变化,各项物流成本并没有得到很好的控制和节约,这也说明了我国物流业的发展主要是数量和规模的发展,在质量方面还有很大的改善空间。

The paper analyzes the development stages and causes of the various factors of the logistics cost in China between 1991 and 2008,elaborates on the significance of the structural management of logistics cost and,using softwares SAS,SPSS,etc.,formulates the proportion-fitting time-series model of the transport cost,inventory cost and management cost according to their percentages of the total logistics cost.Then it forecasts the constitution of the logistics cost in China in the next few years using the model.Finally through lateral and vertical comparison of the forecasting results,it argues that the structure of the logistics cost in China would remain roughly the same for the next couple of years and the management and conservation of the individual costs haven＇t yielded too favorable results,indicating that the development of the logistics industry in China is mainly on the basis of quantity and scale while in terms of quality it still has great room for improvement.