中国二氧化碳排放与经济发展的均衡分析

Equilibrium Analysis of CO_2 Emissions and Economic Development of China

运用协整理论和误差修正模型,对1978～2008年中国二氧化碳排放与国民生产总值的年度数据进行分析。实证表明,中国二氧化碳排放与国民生产总值存在协整。检验结果显示,GDP是中国二氧化碳排放单向Granger原因,GDP的增长导致中国二氧化碳排放的增加。从短期来看,中国二氧化碳排放与国民生产总值呈现正相关关系,而且修正速度适中。

Using the theory of cointegration and error correction model（ECM）,CO2 emissions and GDP of China from 1978 to 2008 were analyzed.The positive research indicated that CO2 emissions and GDP was long-run equilibrium,ln（gdp）was ln（ce）of Granger causality,and GDP and CE change long-run cocurrent.In short-run dynamics adjustment,CO2 emissions and GDP presented positive-correlation,the error correction coefficient conformed to the reverse revision mechanism,and the corrected speed was moderate.